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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Public Advisory



590 
WTNT32 KNHC 290248
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
1100 PM AST Tue Jun 28 2022

...DISTURBANCE MOVING NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF VENEZUELA...
...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF
VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 62.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM WNW OF TRINIDAD
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM ESE OF CURACAO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Venezuela has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for the coast of Venezuela from the Peninsula de Paraguana
westward to the Colombia/Venezuela border including the Gulf of
Venezuela.

The meteorological Service of Colombia has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for the coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela
border westward to Santa Marta.Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe to 
St. Lucia: 1 to 3 inches.
St. Vincent, the Grenadines, and Barbados: 3 to 5 inches.
Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, and northeastern Venezuela: 4 to 6
inches.
Aruba, Curacao and Bonaire to Northwest Venezuela: 3 to 5 inches.

The Meteorological Service of Trinidad and Tobago has discontinued
the Tropical Storm Warning for Trinidad and Tobago.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Islas de Margarita, Coche and Cubagua
* Bonaire
* Curacao
* Aruba
* Coast of Venezuela from the Peninsula de Paraguana
westward to the Colombia/Venezuela border including the Gulf of
Venezuela.
* Coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela
border westward to Santa Marta

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, the northern coast of
Venezuela, and the northern coast of Colombia should monitor the
progress of this system.  Interests in the southwestern Caribbean
Sea and along the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica
should also monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 10.9 North, longitude 62.8 West. The system is moving
toward the west-northwest near 26 mph (43 km/h).  A westward or 
west-northwestward motion is expected through Thursday.  On the 
forecast track, the system will pass near or over the northeastern 
coast of Venezuela tonight, and move over the southern Caribbean 
Sea or near the northern coast of Venezuela and the northeast coast 
of Colombia on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days if the 
disturbance remains over water.

Conditions appear conducive for development if the disturbance
remains over water, and it will likely become a tropical storm 
while moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high ...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across the Windward Islands and northeast Venezuela
tonight and Wednesday and from the ABC Islands to portions of
northwest Venezuela Wednesday through Wednesday night.  The
following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe to St. Lucia: 1 to 3 inches. St. 
Vincent, the Grenadines, and Barbados: 3 to 5 inches. Grenada, 
Trinidad and Tobago, and northeastern Venezuela: 4 to 6 inches. 
Aruba, Curacao and Bonaire to Northwest Venezuela: 3 to 5 inches.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
the southern Windward Islands for a few more hours, over Islas
Margarita and the adjacent islands Wednesday morning,  and over the
ABC Islands by Wednesday evening.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area along the northeastern coast of Venezuela
tonight, and in the watch area along the northwestern coast of
Venezuela and the northeastern coast of Venezuela by Wednesday
night and early Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven




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