Currently Active Systems

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Public Advisory


000
WTNT32 KNHC 282339
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
800 PM AST Tue Jun 28 2022

...DISTURBANCE NOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.4N 61.0W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM E OF TRINIDAD
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...40 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Trinidad and Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Islas de Margarita, Coche and Cubagua
* Bonaire
* Curacao
* Aruba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana
* Coast of Venezuela from the Peninsula de Paraguana
westward to the Colombia/Venezuela border including the Gulf of
Venezuela.
* Coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela
border westward to Santa Marta

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, the northern coast of
Venezuela, and the northeastern coast of Colombia should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), based on data from the Barbados radar 
and surface observations the disturbance was centered near latitude
10.4 North, longitude 61.0 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 25 mph (40 km/h).  A westward or west-northwestward motion
is expected through Thursday.  On the forecast track, the system
will pass near or over portions of the southern Windward Islands
tonight, and move over the southern Caribbean Sea or near the
northern coast of Venezuela and the northeast coast of Colombia on
Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days if
the disturbance remains over water.

Conditions appear conducive for development if the disturbance
remains over water, and it will likely become a tropical storm near
the southern Windward Islands or while moving westward across the
southern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high ...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.  During the past several hours, there was a wind 
gust of 74 mph (119 km/h) on Grenada during a severe thunderstorm. 
There have also been other reports of wind gust of tropical-storm 
force elsewhere across portions of the southern Windward Islands 
and Trinidad and Tobago.  

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce 
heavy rain across the Windward Islands and northeast Venezuela 
tonight and Wednesday…and from the ABC Islands to portions of 
northwest Venezuela Wednesday through Wednesday night.  The 
following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe to St. Lucia: 1 to 3 inches.
St. Vincent, the Grenadines, and Barbados: 3 to 5 inches.
Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, and northeastern Venezuela: 4 to 6 
inches.
Aruba, Curacao and Bonaire to Northwest Venezuela: 3 to 5 inches. 

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
the southern Windward Islands this evening and tonight, over Islas
Margarita and the adjacent islands Wednesday morning,  and over the
ABC Islands by Wednesday evening.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area along the northeastern coast of Venezuela
tonight, and in the watch area along the northwestern coast of
Venezuela and the northeastern coast of Venezuela by Wednesday
night and early Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven



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