907 WTNT42 KNHC 282043 TCDAT2 Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 500 PM AST Tue Jun 28 2022 The disturbance continues to generate strong convection with some banding features over the northern portion of the system. Nonetheless, observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft, including Tail Doppler radar wind data, along with imagery from the Barbados radar indicate that the system still lacks a closed circulation. Given that the disturbance should continue to move through a low-shear and moderately moist atmospheric environment for the next couple of days, some intensification is possible, and the system is expected to make the transition to a tropical cyclone on Wednesday. However interaction with land, including low-level inflow off the land mass of South America will likely limit intensification until the system reaches the southwestern Caribbean Sea later this week. More significant strengthening, possibly into a hurricane, could occur over the latter region as shown in the official forecast. Late in the forecast period, the global models suggest that the cyclone's low-level circulation will remain intact after crossing Central America and this is also shown by the NHC forecast. Although the center position is not precise, the initial motion estimate continues to be quickly westward or about 280/21 kt. There is no significant change to the track forecast philosophy. A strong mid-tropospheric ridge is expected to be maintained to the north of the system through this week. Therefore a continued westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through the forecast period. The official forecast track remains about the same and closely follows the dynamical model consensus. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall is expected across the Windward Islands, northeastern Venezuela, and the ABC Islands through Wednesday. Localized flash flooding will be possible. 2. Winds to tropical-storm-force are expected over portions of the southern Windward Islands tonight, over Islas Margarita Wednesday morning, and over the ABC Islands by Wednesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the northeastern coast of Venezuela tonight and early Wednesday. 3. There is a greater-than-normal uncertainty in the system's forecast intensity once it reaches the southwestern Caribbean Sea late Thursday and Friday, which will depend on how much it interacts with land from tonight through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 10.1N 59.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 29/0600Z 10.8N 62.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 29/1800Z 11.4N 66.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 30/0600Z 11.9N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 12.1N 73.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 01/0600Z 12.1N 77.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 12.0N 80.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 12.0N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 03/1800Z 13.0N 90.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...OVER THE PACIFIC $$ Forecaster Pasch