151 WTNT42 KNHC 280239 TCDAT2 Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 1100 PM AST Mon Jun 27 2022 The disturbance east of the southern Windward Islands appears to have lost organization this evening. There is still no sign of a well-defined center, and much of the associated convection is oriented in a broken east-to-west line. Needless to say, the center location is very uncertain. Maximum winds remain 35 kt based on the earlier aircraft data. The motion estimate is westward, or 275/15 kt. Strong ridging to the north should keep the disturbance moving generally westward or west-northwestward at a quick pace through the forecast period. The challenging aspect of the forecast is whether the disturbance will develop a well-defined center (and become a tropical cyclone), and if it does, will that center move over the waters of the southern Caribbean Sea or instead moved inland across northern Venezuela. The available track guidance grazes the coast of Venezuela, and if the disturbance follows that track, it could still close off a center and strengthen. If genesis does not occur during that period, tropical cyclone formation would become more likely after 60 hours once the system moves out over the waters of the southwestern Caribbean Sea away from land. Low shear and warm waters could support the system becoming a hurricane over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, but that will largely depend on what state the system is in after interacting with land. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall is expected across the Windward Islands and northeastern Venezuela Tuesday night through Wednesday. Localized flash flooding will be possible. 2. Winds to tropical storm force are expected over portions of the southern Windward Islands late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the northeastern coast of Venezuela Tuesday night and Wednesday, and on Bonaire by Wednesday evening. 3. There is higher-than-normal uncertainty on the system's forecast intensity once it reaches the southwestern Caribbean Sea late Thursday and Friday, which will depend on how much it interacts with land from Tuesday night through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 8.7N 52.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 28/1200Z 9.3N 55.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 29/0000Z 10.1N 59.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 29/1200Z 10.8N 63.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 11.4N 67.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 30/1200Z 11.8N 71.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 11.8N 75.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 11.5N 81.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 03/0000Z 11.9N 87.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg