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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Forecast Discussion


151 
WTNT42 KNHC 280239
TCDAT2

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
1100 PM AST Mon Jun 27 2022

The disturbance east of the southern Windward Islands appears to
have lost organization this evening.  There is still no sign of a
well-defined center, and much of the associated convection is
oriented in a broken east-to-west line.  Needless to say, the
center location is very uncertain.  Maximum winds remain 35 kt
based on the earlier aircraft data.

The motion estimate is westward, or 275/15 kt.  Strong ridging to 
the north should keep the disturbance moving generally westward or 
west-northwestward at a quick pace through the forecast period.  
The challenging aspect of the forecast is whether the disturbance 
will develop a well-defined center (and become a tropical cyclone), 
and if it does, will that center move over the waters of the 
southern Caribbean Sea or instead moved inland across northern 
Venezuela.  The available track guidance grazes the coast of 
Venezuela, and if the disturbance follows that track, it could 
still close off a center and strengthen.  If genesis does not occur 
during that period, tropical cyclone formation would become more 
likely after 60 hours once the system moves out over the waters of 
the southwestern Caribbean Sea away from land.  Low shear and warm 
waters could support the system becoming a hurricane over the 
southwestern Caribbean Sea, but that will largely depend on what 
state the system is in after interacting with land.


KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Heavy rainfall is expected across the Windward Islands and 
northeastern Venezuela Tuesday night through Wednesday. Localized 
flash flooding will be possible.

2.  Winds to tropical storm force are expected over portions of the
southern Windward Islands late Tuesday and Tuesday night.  Tropical 
storm conditions are possible along the northeastern coast of 
Venezuela Tuesday night and Wednesday, and on Bonaire by Wednesday 
evening.

3.  There is higher-than-normal uncertainty on the system's forecast
intensity once it reaches the southwestern Caribbean Sea late 
Thursday and Friday, which will depend on how much it interacts with 
land from Tuesday night through Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z  8.7N  52.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  28/1200Z  9.3N  55.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 24H  29/0000Z 10.1N  59.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 36H  29/1200Z 10.8N  63.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  30/0000Z 11.4N  67.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  30/1200Z 11.8N  71.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  01/0000Z 11.8N  75.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  02/0000Z 11.5N  81.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  03/0000Z 11.9N  87.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg




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