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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT42 KNHC 302041
TCDAT2

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
500 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022

Deep convection associated with the disturbance is minimal, and in 
fact one could argue that the system lacks sufficient convection 
for classification via the Dvorak technique.  The main band of 
shower activity is located well to the north of the location of 
the low-level vorticity maximum.  The Air Force Hurricane Hunters 
were not able to close off a definite center of circulation, 
although they did report some light southwest winds over the 
southern portion of the system just to the north of Colombia.  
Observations from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the 
maximum winds remain near 35 kt.  Since the models generally agree 
that the system will slow its forward speed beginning tonight, it is 
still likely that it will develop a better-defined low level 
circulation soon.

The initial motion estimate remains at 270/17 for now.  A 
mid-tropospheric ridge extending southwestward into the 
northwestern Caribbean Sea should cause the disturbance to move a 
little south of west for the next 12 to 24 hours.  Thereafter, a 
more zonally-oriented ridge is likely to result in a generally 
westward track across Central America and into the eastern Pacific. 
In 3 to 5 days, the system should move west-northwestward on the 
southwestern periphery of the ridge, to the south of Mexico.  The 
NHC track forecast is a blend of the simple and corrected model 
consensus predictions.

The environment for the system looks conducive for strengthening up 
to landfall, with very low vertical shear, warm waters, and a 
moist low- to mid-level air mass.  After weakening during 
its passage across Central America, re-strengthening is expected 
over the eastern Pacific.  The official intensity forecast is near 
the high end of the intensity model guidance.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is possible across Nicaragua and Costa Rica by
Friday. Areas of life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are
expected.

2. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane
Watch area along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua late Friday.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected on San Andres on Friday,
along the Caribbean coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua within the
Tropical Storm Warning areas late Friday, and are possible within
the Tropical Storm Watch areas along the Pacific coasts of Costa
Rica and Nicaragua on Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z 12.0N  75.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  01/0600Z 11.6N  78.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  01/1800Z 11.3N  81.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 11.3N  84.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 48H  02/1800Z 11.4N  86.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN
 60H  03/0600Z 11.8N  89.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  03/1800Z 12.5N  91.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  04/1800Z 14.0N  97.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  05/1800Z 15.4N 103.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch



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