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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Forecast Discussion


771 
WTNT42 KNHC 300847
TCDAT2

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
500 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022

Nighttime proxy-visible satellite imagery shows that the disturbance
continues to become better defined (at least in the mid levels),
with a formative low-level center moving across the Guajira
Peninsula overnight and convective banding features to the north
just off the coast.  There is still no conclusive evidence that the
circulation has closed off, but we should have a better idea of the
system's structure later today with visible imagery and a Hurricane
Hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon.

The initial motion estimate is westward, or 270/17 kt.  For the next
36-48 hours, the track guidance is in excellent agreement that a
strong mid-level ridge extending southward over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea is likely to force the disturbance/tropical cyclone on
a south-of-due-west heading as it moves toward Central America.
Based on the latest guidance, the NHC track forecast has been nudged
south of the previous forecast while over the southwestern Caribbean
Sea.  After crossing Central America in 2-3 days, the orientation of
the ridge should cause the system to move westward and then
west-northwestward south of the coast of Mexico.  No significant
changes to the official track forecast were made during this period.

In order for the system to develop a closed circulation and become a
tropical storm, the key is for it to slow down, and it appears that
will happen by 24 hours.  Otherwise, warm waters and low shear 
should allow for strengthening while the system moves across the 
southwestern Caribbean Sea.  It should be noted that additional
strengthening could occur after the 36-hour forecast point until the
system makes landfall in Nicaragua or Costa Rica, and the NHC
intensity forecast is at the higher end of the guidance. After some
weakening occurs over Central America, the system is expected to
strengthen again over the eastern North Pacific, possibly becoming a
hurricane by day 5.


KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Heavy rainfall is possible across portions of northern Colombia
through this morning, and then across Nicaragua and Costa Rica by
Friday. Areas of flash flooding are expected, along with the
potential for mudslides.

2.  Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the
Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Watch areas, respectively, along
the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica late Friday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected on the Colombian island of 
San Andres on Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0900Z 12.0N  72.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  30/1800Z 12.0N  75.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  01/0600Z 11.5N  79.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 11.1N  81.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 11.1N  84.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 60H  02/1800Z 11.1N  87.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN
 72H  03/0600Z 11.5N  89.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  04/0600Z 12.8N  95.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  05/0600Z 14.2N 100.9W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg




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