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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Forecast Advisory


386 
WTNT22 KNHC 301449
TCMAT2

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022022
1500 UTC THU JUN 30 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE
NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER NORTHWARD TO SANDY BAY SIRPI...AND A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE
NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SANDINO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF COSTA RICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF COSTA RICA FROM LIMON NORTHWARD TO THE
NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA FROM CABO BLANCO NORTHWARD TO THE
NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER TO LAGUNA DE PERLAS NICARAGUA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN ANDRES COLOMBIA
* LIMON COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO BLANCO COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SANDINO NICARAGUA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG BOTH THE CARIBBEAN AND PACIFIC COASTS OF
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N  74.0W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N  74.0W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N  73.1W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 11.7N  77.0W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 11.2N  80.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.1N  83.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  20SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.0N  85.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 11.2N  87.8W...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 11.8N  90.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 13.2N  96.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 14.5N 102.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N  74.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 30/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH





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