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Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen Wind Speed Probabilities


667 
FONT13 KNHC 061453
PWSAT3

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THIRTEEN                                 
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1                                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132022               
1500 UTC THU OCT 06 2022                                            

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THIRTEEN WAS      
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                     

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

BELIZE CITY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)

PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   5(12)

GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   3(14)
GUANAJA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)  15(30)   X(30)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   X( 9)
PUERTO CABEZAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)

BLUEFIELDS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  16(27)   1(28)
BLUEFIELDS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)
BLUEFIELDS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)

SAN ANDRES     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  42(43)   6(49)   X(49)
SAN ANDRES     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)   3(20)   X(20)
SAN ANDRES     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)

LIMON          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)

COLON          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

PT GALLINAS    34  X  14(14)   3(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)

CURACAO        34 11   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     



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