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Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT23 KNHC 061452
TCMAT3

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132022
1500 UTC THU OCT 06 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER WESTWARD
TO RIOHACHA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COLOMBIA FROM THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER TO RIOHACHA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN SAN ANDRES...PROVIDENCIA...AND THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA
AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DISTURBANCE.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY OR ON
FRIDAY.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N  67.0W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N  67.0W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N  66.3W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 11.8N  69.0W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 12.3N  71.9W...NEAR GUAJIRA PENINSULA
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 12.9N  74.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 13.0N  78.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  50SE  30SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 12.9N  80.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 12.8N  82.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 13.8N  86.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 15.6N  91.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N  67.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 06/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG




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