Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT23 KNHC 062036
TCMAT3

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132022
2100 UTC THU OCT 06 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN ANDRES...PROVIDENCIA...AND SANTA CATALINA ISLANDS COLOMBIA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM RIOHACHA EASTWARD TO THE
COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THE DISTURBANCE.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS
COULD BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N  68.7W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N  68.7W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N  68.0W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 12.0N  70.7W...TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 12.6N  73.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  20SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 13.0N  76.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 13.0N  79.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  50SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 13.1N  81.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  70SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 13.3N  84.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE  70SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 14.8N  89.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N  68.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 07/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG




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