Currently Active Systems

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Public Advisory


509 
WTNT31 KNHC 040547
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012022
200 AM EDT Sat Jun 04 2022

...INTENSE RAINS STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA 
KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 83.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM W OF DRY TORTUGAS FLORIDA
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas 
* Florida Bay 
* West coast of Florida south of the Middle of Longboat Key to Card
Sound Bridge
* East coast of Florida south of the Volusia/Brevard County Line to
Card Sound Bridge
* Lake Okeechobee
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, and
Mayabeque
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible somewhere within the watch area, in this case within the
next 6 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and Bermuda should
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, 
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor 
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast 
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the 
United States, please monitor products issued by your national 
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the poorly defined center of the 
disturbance was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 83.6 
West. The system is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 
km/h), and a northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed 
is expected during the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, 
the system should move across the southern and central portions of 
the Florida Peninsula later today, over the southwestern Atlantic 
north of the northwestern Bahamas late today and Sunday, and near 
or north of Bermuda by late Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. No change in status or strength is expected before the
disturbance moves across Florida, but the system is expected to
develop a well-defined center and strengthen slightly late this
weekend and early next week over the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone will continue to produce
heavy rains across western Cuba early this morning. Heavy rainfall 
will also affect the northwestern Bahamas, the Keys, South Florida, 
and Central Florida today. The following storm total rainfall 
amounts are expected:

Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with isolated maxima of 14 inches.
This rain may cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Central Florida, South Florida, and the Florida Keys: 4 to 8 inches
with isolated maxima of 12 inches across South Florida and in the
Keys. This rain may produce considerable flash and urban flooding.

Northwestern Bahamas: 3 to 6 inches with maxima of 10 inches. This
rain may produce flash and urban flooding.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
in Cuba through early this morning, in Florida today, and in the 
northwestern Bahamas by this afternoon.  Tropical storm conditions 
are possible in the watch area in Cuba early this morning.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Marco Island, FL to Card Sound Bridge...1-3 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Marco Island, FL...1-2 ft
Charlotte Harbor...1-2 ft
Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas...1-2 ft
Card Sound Bridge to North Miami Beach, FL including Biscayne
Bay...1-2 ft

Extreme Northwestern Bahamas: Storm surge could raise water levels
by as much 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible over the southern Florida
Peninsula and the Florida Keys today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg




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