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Potential Tropical Cyclone One Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT41 KNHC 040238
TCDAT1

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012022
1100 PM EDT Fri Jun 03 2022

A combination of satellite and radar images, as well as surface and
reconnaissance data indicate that the disturbance is still quite
ill-defined with multiple centers evident.  Overall, the system
appears a little less organized than earlier today and resembles an
elongated trough with disorganized convection. Therefore, the
disturbance still lacks the criteria needed for a tropical cyclone,
so there remains no change in the system's status.  The initial
intensity is held at 35 kt based on Doppler radar data.  Nearly all
of the deep convection is located on the system's east side with
the heaviest rain currently occurring over western Cuba, the
Florida Keys, and South Florida.

Since there is no real center of circulation, the initial motion is 
uncertain, but the overall envelope is moving northeastward at about 
10 kt.  The disturbance is expected to continue northeastward and 
move across south and central Florida early Saturday and then move 
north of the northwestern Bahamas late Saturday and early Sunday. 
After that time, a general east-northeast to northeast motion over 
the western Atlantic is forecast, with the system moving closest to 
Bermuda late Monday.  The new NHC track forecast is a little faster 
than the previous one, trending toward the latest guidance.

Strong southwesterly shear and dry mid-level air should prevent the 
disturbance from organizing much before it moves across Florida. 
However, the models do show the system gaining some organization and 
strength while it moves over the western Atlantic late this weekend 
and early next week, and the system could benefit from some 
baroclinic enhancements.  The NHC intensity forecast remains on the 
low side of the guidance through the period.  The system is forecast 
to become extratropical in 72-96 hours, but some models suggest that 
this could occur a little sooner.

Data from the Cuban meteorological service indicate a couple of
locations have already received more than 10 inches of rain during 
this event.  The main impact will continue to be widespread heavy 
rain that will affect portions of western Cuba, the southern
Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas
during the next day or so.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rain associated with the system is expected to continue
tonight across portions of western Cuba, where life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides are possible.

2. Heavy rainfall will also affect the northwestern Bahamas, the
Keys, South Florida, and Central Florida tonight through Saturday.
Considerable flash and urban flooding is possible across South
Florida and in the Keys. Flash and urban flooding is also possible
across the northwestern Bahamas.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
western Cuba for a few more hours, in Florida tonight and on
Saturday, and in the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday.  Tropical
storm conditions are also possible in the watch area in western Cuba
during the next few hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 24.5N  83.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  04/1200Z 25.8N  82.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 24H  05/0000Z 28.4N  78.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 36H  05/1200Z 30.7N  75.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 32.3N  72.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  06/1200Z 33.8N  68.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z 34.3N  64.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  08/0000Z 35.1N  58.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  09/0000Z 37.2N  52.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



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