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Potential Tropical Cyclone One Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT41 KNHC 050241
TCDAT1

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012022
1100 PM EDT Sat Jun 04 2022

Satellite images, surface observations, and data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters indicate that system is still disorganized with
an elongated circulation and thunderstorms confined to the eastern
side of the disturbance.  The heaviest rains have pulled away from
Florida and the Bahamas, but there were numerous reports of
flooding in both locations.  The initial intensity is held at 40 kt
based on the steady state nature of the system and the Air Force
Hurricane Hunter data.

The disturbance is moving fairly quickly to the northeast at 17 kt,
and a continued relatively fast northeast to east-northeast motion
is expected during the next few days as the system remains embedded
in the mid-latitude westerlies.  This motion should bring the
system close to or north of Bermuda on Monday. Beyond a few days,
the models show a slow down due to the disturbance becoming weaker 
and vertically shallow.  The new NHC track forecast is notably 
slower than the previous one, especially from days 3 to 5, and 
additional adjustments may be required if the model trends continue.

This system is expected to become a tropical or subtropical cyclone
overnight or on Sunday as it strengthens slightly in part due to the
effects of a nearby mid- to upper-level trough.  However, any
strengthening and increase in organization will likely be
short-lived due to the influences of strong westerly shear and dry
air, and gradual weakening should commence on Monday. The models are
trending toward a faster transition to an extratropical cyclone with
the GFS, UKMET, and CMC showing the system merging with a front late
Monday or Tuesday.  The ECMWF shows a slower transition, however.
The NHC forecast now predicts extratropical transition to be
complete by 60 hours, shortly after its passage by Bermuda, but
some of the models suggest it could occur sooner.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. This system is forecast to become a tropical or subtropical 
storm on Sunday, and tropical storm conditions are possible on 
Bermuda on Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 28.4N  78.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  05/1200Z 29.7N  76.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  06/0000Z 31.5N  72.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 32.9N  68.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  07/0000Z 33.9N  64.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  07/1200Z 34.6N  59.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  08/0000Z 34.7N  55.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  09/0000Z 35.9N  50.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  10/0000Z 38.6N  45.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



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