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Potential Tropical Cyclone One Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT21 KNHC 041449
TCMAT1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012022
1500 UTC SAT JUN 04 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS...THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA WEST OF THE CARD SOUND ROAD
BRIDGE...FLORIDA BAY...AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
CARD SOUND BRIDGE
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N  81.4W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT  16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE 180SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N  81.4W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.1N  82.0W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 27.8N  79.4W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 29.7N  76.0W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 31.9N  71.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  80SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 33.7N  66.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 35.0N  61.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 35.7N  56.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 39.0N  48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 44.5N  37.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.5N  81.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 04/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




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