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Potential Tropical Cyclone One Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT21 KNHC 032031
TCMAT1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012022
2100 UTC FRI JUN 03 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
* FLORIDA BAY
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY TO CARD
SOUND BRIDGE
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
CARD SOUND BRIDGE
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...ARTEMISA...LA HABANA...AND
MAYABEQUE
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND BERMUDA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N  85.8W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  40 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N  85.8W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N  86.3W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 24.4N  84.0W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...130NE 140SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 26.4N  81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 130SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 28.5N  78.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 140SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 30.5N  75.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE  80SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 32.0N  70.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE  80SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 33.1N  66.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 170SE  80SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 34.0N  59.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 35.5N  54.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N  85.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 04/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




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