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Potential Tropical Cyclone One Forecast Advisory


912 
WTNT21 KNHC 030855
TCMAT1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012022
0900 UTC FRI JUN 03 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF
THE MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ENGLEWOOD...THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
SOUTH OF THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO CARD SOUND BRIDGE...AND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...ARTEMISA...LA HABANA...AND
MAYABEQUE TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
* FLORIDA BAY
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY TO CARD
SOUND BRIDGE
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
CARD SOUND BRIDGE
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...ARTEMISA...LA HABANA...AND
MAYABEQUE
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N  86.6W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  40 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N  86.6W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N  86.9W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 23.5N  85.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 110SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 25.3N  83.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 130SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 27.1N  80.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 140SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 29.1N  77.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 140SE  70SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 31.0N  74.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE  80SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 32.5N  70.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 170SE  80SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 34.1N  62.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 34.8N  57.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N  86.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 03/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG





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