912 WTNT21 KNHC 030855 TCMAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012022 0900 UTC FRI JUN 03 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ENGLEWOOD...THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO CARD SOUND BRIDGE...AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...ARTEMISA...LA HABANA...AND MAYABEQUE TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS * FLORIDA BAY * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY TO CARD SOUND BRIDGE * EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO CARD SOUND BRIDGE * LAKE OKEECHOBEE * CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...ARTEMISA...LA HABANA...AND MAYABEQUE * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 86.6W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 86.6W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 86.9W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 23.5N 85.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 110SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 25.3N 83.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 27.1N 80.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 29.1N 77.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 70SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 31.0N 74.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 32.5N 70.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 170SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 34.1N 62.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 34.8N 57.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 86.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 03/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG