Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Wind Speed Probabilities


482 
FONT15 KNHC 310842
PWSAT5

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN                                  
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3                                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152022               
0900 UTC MON OCT 31 2022                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN WAS       
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                     

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

VERACRUZ MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)

FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   9(19)   X(19)
FRONTERA MX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)

MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   2(10)   X(10)

COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  13(19)   1(20)   X(20)

BELIZE CITY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  52(57)   6(63)   X(63)
BELIZE CITY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  23(24)   4(28)   X(28)
BELIZE CITY    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   1(10)   X(10)

PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  20(20)   6(26)   X(26)
PUERTO BARRIOS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)
PUERTO BARRIOS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)

GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  22(24)  27(51)   1(52)   X(52)
GUANAJA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  15(20)   X(20)   X(20)
GUANAJA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

S SALVADOR     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)

TEGUCIGALPA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)

P SAN JOSE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)   X(11)
P SAN JOSE     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
P SAN JOSE     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

GUATEMALA CITY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   8(15)   X(15)
GUATEMALA CITY 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
GUATEMALA CITY 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

TAPACHULA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  12(17)   X(17)
TAPACHULA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
TAPACHULA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   4( 4)  10(14)   3(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)

MONTEGO BAY    34  6   6(12)   1(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)

KINGSTON       34 15   3(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    



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