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FONT15 KNHC 310842
PWSAT5
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152022
0900 UTC MON OCT 31 2022
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 9(19) X(19)
FRONTERA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) 1(20) X(20)
BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 52(57) 6(63) X(63)
BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 4(28) X(28)
BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 6(26) X(26)
PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7)
PUERTO BARRIOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
GUANAJA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 27(51) 1(52) X(52)
GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) X(20) X(20)
GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
S SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7)
TEGUCIGALPA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
P SAN JOSE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11)
P SAN JOSE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
P SAN JOSE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
GUATEMALA CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) X(15)
GUATEMALA CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
GUATEMALA CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
TAPACHULA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) X(17)
TAPACHULA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
TAPACHULA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18)
MONTEGO BAY 34 6 6(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
KINGSTON 34 15 3(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH