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Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Forecast Discussion


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WTNT45 KNHC 310842
TCDAT5

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152022
500 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

The system has changed little in organization overnight.  Deep 
convection is not very extensive at this time and convective banding 
features are rather limited, as evidenced by a Dvorak classification 
of T1.0 from TAFB.  Thus, the disturbance still lacks sufficient 
organized convection to be classified as a tropical cyclone.  
Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft and 
scatterometer data indicate that the circulation is somewhat 
elongated from south to north, and the maximum winds are 30-35 kt.  
Satellite images show that the broad center is located just to the 
west of the main area of deep convection.

The disturbance continues moving generally westward, or around 
270/10 kt.  A mid-level anticyclone to the north of the system 
should maintain a westward to west-northwestward track for the next 
48 hours or so.  Then, as the high shifts westward, the system is 
forecast to turn west-southwestward  when it nears the coast of 
Belize or eastern Yucatan.  The official track forecast is close to 
the model consensus and not much different from the previous NHC 
prediction.  It should be noted, however, that the the forecast
track could undergo some additional adjustments until the
circulation center becomes better defined.

It is expected that the system will acquire sufficient convective 
organization to make the transition to a tropical cyclone in 12 
hours or so.  During the next couple of days, the system/tropical 
cyclone will be traversing very warm waters and moving through a 
fairly moist air mass.  Also, the upper-level winds are forecast by 
the global models to become increasingly anticyclonic which should 
enhance the outflow over the area.  Therefore strengthening appears 
likely and the official forecast continues to call for hurricane 
status before landfall in Belize or the eastern Yucatan Peninsula.  
This is near or above the latest intensity consensus guidance.  


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm
Watch areas beginning today for Jamaica and on Tuesday for Grand
Cayman Island.

2. Interests along the coast of Central America, especially near
Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required early this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/0900Z 15.8N  76.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  31/1800Z 16.1N  77.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  01/0600Z 16.4N  79.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 16.8N  82.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 17.2N  84.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  02/1800Z 17.4N  86.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  03/0600Z 17.2N  88.6W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
 96H  04/0600Z 16.0N  92.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch



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