Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT25 KNHC 310841
TCMAT5

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152022
0900 UTC MON OCT 31 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...ESPECIALLY
BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED EARLY THIS WEEK.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N  76.1W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE  50SE   0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N  76.1W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N  75.5W

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 16.1N  77.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE  50SE   0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.4N  79.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  50SE   0SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 16.8N  82.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.2N  84.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.4N  86.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.2N  88.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 16.0N  92.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N  76.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 31/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




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