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Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Forecast Discussion


679 
WTNT44 KNHC 150847
TCDAT4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022

Moderate to strong vertical wind shear and relatively low mid-level
humidities have continued to take a toll on Karl.  Satellite data
and radar imagery from Mexico indicate that the cyclone has not
produced any organized deep convection since around midday
yesterday, and it is very unlikely any will return this morning.
Therefore, Karl has become a remnant low and this will be the last
NHC advisory on this system. The radar imagery has revealed a
persistent area of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall
well south of Karl's center that appears to be related to upslope
flow against the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico.  Within
this cluster of convection, a significant amount of lightning has
been noted in the GOES Lightning Mapper (GLM) data overnight.
Karl's remnants could still produce flash flooding and mudslides
over portions of southern Mexico through this weekend.

The initial intensity has been reduced to 25 kt, which is a blend
of Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The global models
indicate that the remnant low will continue to spin down today,
and the official forecast calls for it to become a trough of low
pressure by tonight when it moves inland over southern Mexico.

The low is currently moving southwestward at about 4 kt, and a
southwestward to west-southwestward motion should continue until
dissipation occurs.  This motion should bring the center of the
cyclone along the southern coast of the Bay of Campeche this
morning, and inland by later today.

This is the last NHC advisory on this system.  For additional
information on heavy rainfall and flooding, please see products
issued by your national meteorological service.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with the remnants of Karl could
produce instances of flash flooding, with mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas and
Oaxaca states in Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 18.6N  93.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  15/1800Z 18.3N  93.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown




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