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Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian Wind Speed Probabilities


260 
FONT14 KNHC 010251
PWSAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  34       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022               
0300 UTC SAT OCT 01 2022                                            

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 35.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

CHARLOTTESVIL  34  2   6( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

RICHMOND VA    34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

DANVILLE VA    34 23   2(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)

GREENSBORO NC  34  4   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

RALEIGH NC     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

ROCKY MT NC    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

FAYETTEVILLE   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

CHERRY PT NC   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

NEW RIVER NC   34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

MOREHEAD CITY  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

SURF CITY NC   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

WILMINGTON NC  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

BALD HEAD ISL  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

LITTLE RIVER   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
LITTLE RIVER   50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

MYRTLE BEACH   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER REINHART                                                 



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