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Post-Tropical Cyclone Alex Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT41 KNHC 062033
TCDAT1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Alex Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012022
500 PM AST Mon Jun 06 2022

Alex has not produced any deep convection near its center since last 
night. It's surface circulation has also become elongated and 
ill-defined. Based on these factors, Alex is now classified as 
post-tropical and this will be the last advisory. The initial 
intensity is set at 50 kt, assuming a little weakening has occurred 
since this morning, though this is uncertain due to a lack of recent 
ASCAT or surface observations.

Alex is moving quickly toward the east-northeast. Another
non-tropical low or trough is forecast to develop to the northeast
of Alex tonight.  While there is quite a bit of variability in the
details, all global models forecast that Alex and the other low
will merge within the next 24 h or so, so the NHC forecast now
shows dissipation at that time.  The baroclinic system that results
from that merger is expected to strengthen and could produce
hurricane-force winds over the north Atlantic by midweek.  For more
information, please see forecasts from the National Weather Service
Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header
FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 35.5N  60.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  07/0600Z 37.6N  55.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky



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