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Hurricane Sam Wind Speed Probabilities


940 
FONT13 KNHC 271454
PWSAT3

HURRICANE SAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  20                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182021               
1500 UTC MON SEP 27 2021                                            

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110   
KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H.                                           

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  26(29)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)

SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)

SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)

SABA           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)

ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)

GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER HAGEN/PASCH                                              




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