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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory


089 
WTNT23 KNHC 250832
TCMAT3

HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182021
0900 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N  46.7W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  75SE  75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N  46.7W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N  46.3W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 13.1N  48.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 13.5N  49.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 14.0N  50.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 14.7N  51.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 15.4N  52.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.3N  53.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 18.0N  56.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 20.1N  59.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N  46.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI





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