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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT23 KNHC 040232
TCMAT3

HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182021
0300 UTC MON OCT 04 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N  51.2W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  50 DEGREES AT  17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  60SE  50SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 100SE 110SW 100NW.
34 KT.......210NE 210SE 210SW 210NW.
12 FT SEAS..340NE 350SE 420SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N  51.2W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.7N  52.2W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 41.6N  47.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW   0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 110SE 100SW  80NW.
34 KT...200NE 230SE 230SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 46.5N  42.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW   0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 110SE 100SW  50NW.
34 KT...200NE 280SE 310SW 230NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 50.4N  40.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW   0NW.
50 KT... 80NE 140SE 110SW  80NW.
34 KT...280NE 350SE 400SW 290NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 50.8N  38.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  40SE  40SW   0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 110SE  70SW  50NW.
34 KT...290NE 350SE 380SW 330NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 51.6N  33.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...210NE 290SE 310SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 54.5N  28.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...220NE 260SE 200SW 220NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 61.0N  28.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 61.5N  32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.3N  51.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




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