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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT23 KNHC 010241
TCMAT3

HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182021
0300 UTC FRI OCT 01 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N  61.2W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  938 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  40SE  35SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE  90SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 210SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N  61.2W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N  61.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 27.2N  61.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  45SE  40SW  45NW.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 30.2N  61.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  45NW.
50 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 32.9N  60.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 35.0N  58.9W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 150SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 36.6N  56.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 38.7N  53.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 170SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 44.6N  47.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 48.9N  42.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N  61.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 01/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN




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