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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory


071 
WTNT23 KNHC 291441
TCMAT3

HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182021
1500 UTC WED SEP 29 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N  57.0W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  949 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 105SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N  57.0W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N  56.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.3N  58.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 21.8N  59.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.9N  61.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.6N  61.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE  90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 29.4N  61.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 32.0N  60.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 36.2N  57.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 39.5N  53.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N  57.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH





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