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Hurricane Nicole Public Advisory


000
WTNT32 KNHC 100556
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nicole Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172022
100 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

...NICOLE LIKELY TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA 
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...
...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND WAVES, AND HEAVY RAINS 
CONTINUE OVER A LARGE AREA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 79.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ESE OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Abacos, Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama Island in the
northwestern Bahamas
* Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bimini in the northwestern Bahamas
* Hallandale Beach Florida to Boca Raton Florida
* Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to South Santee River South
Carolina
* North of Bonita Beach to Indian Pass Florida
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown Florida
* Anclote River Florida to Ochlockonee River Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass Florida
* South of North Palm Beach to Hallandale Beach Florida
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests in the remainder of Florida and along the southeastern
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Nicole.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nicole was located
near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 79.9 West.  Nicole is moving
toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A turn toward the
northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the
north and north-northeast on Friday.  On the forecast track, the
center of Nicole will move onshore the east coast of Florida within
the hurricane warning area within the next couple of hours.  
Nicole's center is then expected to move across central and northern 
Florida into southern Georgia today and tonight, and into the
Carolinas on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is expected until Nicole makes
landfall along the Florida east coast.  Nicole is expected to weaken
while moving across Florida and the southeastern United States
today through Friday, and it is likely to become a post-tropical
cyclone by Friday afternoon.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 485
miles (780 km), especially to the north of the center.  NOAA buoy 
41009, located about 25 miles east of Cape Canaveral, Florida, 
recently reported a sustained wind of 56 mph (90 km/h) and a wind 
gust to 67 mph (108 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of 
the northwestern Bahamas for the next several hours.  Hurricane 
conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in Florida 
during the next few hours, and are possible over Lake Okeechobee 
this morning.  Tropical storm conditions will continue along 
portions of the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina 
in the warning areas today.  Tropical storm conditions will begin 
soon within the warning area along the west coast of Florida 
and will continue through this evening.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia including the
St. Johns River to the Fuller Warren Bridge...3 to 5 ft
* Anclote River to Ochlockonee River...3 to 5 ft
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to the South Santee River South
Carolina...2 to 4 ft
* St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to Georgetown
Florida...2 to 4 ft
* Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach...2 to 4 ft
* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...2 to 4 ft
* Englewood to Anclote River including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft
* North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach including Biscayne Bay...1
to 2 ft
* South Santee River to Surf City North Carolina...1 to 2 ft

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the northwestern
Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

RAINFALL:  Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Saturday:

Northwest Bahamas into the eastern, central and northern portions of
the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 5 inches with local maxima of 8 inches.

Southeast into the southern and central Appalachians, western
Mid-Atlantic, and eastern portions of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio:
2 to 4 inches with local maxima of 6 inches along the Blue Ridge.

Northern Mid-Atlantic into New England: 1 to 4 inches.

Flash and urban flooding will be possible, along with renewed river
rises on the St. Johns River, across the Florida Peninsula today.  
Heavy rainfall from this system will spread northward across 
portions of the Southeast, eastern Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and 
New England today through Saturday, where limited flooding impacts 
will be possible.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes will be possible through early this 
morning across east-central to northeast Florida.  The tornado 
threat will increase and gradually expand north through the day into 
southeast Georgia and southern South Carolina.  Some tornado risk 
should continue tonight into early Friday across eastern South 
Carolina and southeast North Carolina.  Tornadoes will again be 
possible during the day Friday centered on central to eastern North 
Carolina into southeast Virginia.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwestern
Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern
United States coast during the next few days.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Berg



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