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Hurricane Martin Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT41 KNHC 021451
TCDAT1

Hurricane Martin Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162022
1100 AM AST Wed Nov 02 2022

Satellite images indicate that Martin now has a better-defined eye, 
with a tight banding pattern wrapping over one degree around the 
center.  Additionally, early-morning microwave data show that 
the cyclone has a closed low-level ring on the 37 GHz channel and 
most of an eyewall on the 91 GHz.  Dvorak intensity estimates have 
increased since the last cycle, and the initial wind speed is set to 
65 kt, near the SAB estimate.

The hurricane has about a day left within an unstable atmosphere 
and moderate shear to further intensify in the conventional 
tropical cyclone manner.  However, a more interesting event could
happen in the early-morning hours tomorrow as extratropical 
transition begins.  Most of the high-resolution hurricane models and 
even some of the global models are showing a sting-jet-like feature 
occurring on the southern side of Martin in about 24 hours due to 
a favorable trough interaction.  Guidance is quite a bit higher 
than the last cycle and, with good agreement in the models, the 
official intensity forecast is raised for the first 24 h, then 
blended back toward the global model consensus.  Martin should be a 
very large and strong extratropical cyclone for several days over 
the far North Atlantic.

Martin is making a leftward turn and accelerating, now estimated 
at 060/23 kt. The tropical cyclone should continue to turn more
northeastward and accelerate over the next day hours as it becomes 
drawn into a strong deep-layer trough from Atlantic Canada. This 
same trough will ultimately fully capture Martin, leading to its 
extratropical transition by tomorrow afternoon. The merger of both 
systems will lead to a rapid expansion of both the 34- and 50-kt 
radii, and this continues to be indicated in the wind-radii 
forecast. After this trough-TC merger, the resulting extratropical 
cyclone will slow down and then move generally eastward over the 
remainder of the forecast period, with perhaps a northward bend 
early next week.  There is increasing uncertainty on the final 
disposition of the low, perhaps near the British Isles or  
turning northward towards Iceland.  The new forecast is moved 
north of the previous one at long range.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 35.5N  50.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 37.6N  46.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 43.4N  39.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 51.9N  35.5W   80 KT  90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  04/1200Z 55.0N  36.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  05/0000Z 56.4N  33.2W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  05/1200Z 56.0N  28.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  06/1200Z 56.5N  17.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  07/1200Z 60.5N  15.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake



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