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Hurricane Martin Forecast Discussion


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WTNT41 KNHC 031443
TCDAT1

Hurricane Martin Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162022
300 PM GMT Thu Nov 03 2022

Martin is nearing the completion of its extratropical transition,
which will likely conclude in the next few hours. Although the
cyclone has maintained some inner-core convection, satellite
imagery indicates that its center is beginning to get stretched out
as it becomes a frontal cyclone. There is also no longer any
indication of an eye-like feature in recent microwave or infrared
imagery. Martin's hybrid structure adds uncertainty to the
intensity estimate, since techniques like Dvorak weren't
designed for cyclones that are becoming frontal. Therefore, even
though most of the satellite-based intensity estimates have
decreased over the past 6 hours, the estimated maximum winds are
held at 75 kt since baroclinic processes are believed to be
supporting the maintenance of intensity of the cyclone at this time.

Martin is moving at a remarkably fast forward speed, with an 
initial motion of 035/42 kt. Once it is post-tropical, Martin is 
forecast to take a northward turn and begin slowing down as it 
interacts with another non-tropical system to its northwest. Martin 
is expected to become a very large and powerful extratropical 
cyclone during this time, with most global models forecasting a 
minimum pressure between the high 920s and mid 930s (mb). After a 
day of relatively slow movement, an occluded and slowly weakening 
post-tropical Martin should begin to move eastward on Saturday. By 
Sunday or Sunday night, the cyclone is forecast to have weakened 
enough to open into a trough embedded within a broad low over the 
far north Atlantic. The track and intensity forecasts are heavily 
based on a blend of the GFS and ECMWF global models, but it's worth 
noting that other models like the HWRF and UKMET support the same 
general evolution of Martin through the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 45.6N  37.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 51.4N  34.9W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  04/1200Z 56.0N  36.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  05/0000Z 56.0N  34.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  05/1200Z 54.5N  28.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  06/0000Z 54.0N  20.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  06/1200Z 55.0N  14.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky



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