Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Martin Forecast Discussion


186 
WTNT41 KNHC 030858
TCDAT1

Hurricane Martin Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162022
900 AM GMT Thu Nov 03 2022

Martin has maintained an impressive presentation overnight, with
an eye feature appearing on and off in satellite imagery. However,
recent images suggests a baroclinic zone is already starting to 
run under Martin's cirrus canopy from the northwest. This front has 
yet to infiltrate the core, per recent microwave imagery, and thus 
Martin currently remains a tropical cyclone. The latest Dvorak 
estimates remain unchanged, so Martin's intensity is held at 75 kt.

Acceleration continues with Martin, but the latest heading is
just a bit more poleward than before at a very brisk 030/40-kt. No
drastic changes were made from the prior cycle, with Martin
accelerating further and turning north over the next 6-12 hours as
it becomes captured by an intense high-latitude trough from
Atlantic Canada. After the phasing between Martin and this potent
deep-layer trough completes, the combined system is forecast to
slow down substantially as it occludes, followed by a faster 
eastward or east-southeastward motion as the large extratropical 
cyclone gradually weakens. The latest track forecast is quite 
similar to the prior forecast, continuing to favor a blend of the 
GFS and ECMWF global model guidance.

Any additional intensification of Martin's maximum sustained winds 
will likely be of the non-tropical variety, as interaction with the 
trough will likely wrap some cool descending air along the 
southwestern side of Martin, potentially resulting a string-jet-like 
development that causes some strengthening. For this reason, a peak 
intensity of 80-kt is still shown in 12 hours as Martin becomes 
post-Tropical. With that said, the most important evolution with the 
cyclone over the next couple of days will be the dramatic expansion 
of its 34- and 50-kt wind field as the system becomes an 
exceptionally large and dangerous warm-seclusion-type extratropical 
low. In fact, the forecast tropical-storm-force wind radii and 
high-seas of the resulting extratropical cyclone are so large in 36 
hours that it takes up a large chunk of the entire north Atlantic 
poleward of 50 degrees. After this time period, the extratropical 
cyclone should completely occlude and gradually start to decay as it 
loses its baroclinicity. However, Martin should remain a large and 
powerful extratropical cyclone into the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 41.9N  41.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 47.9N  37.7W   80 KT  90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  04/0600Z 54.7N  36.7W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  04/1800Z 56.2N  36.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  05/0600Z 55.9N  33.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  05/1800Z 54.7N  26.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  06/0600Z 54.5N  17.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  07/0600Z 59.1N   9.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin




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