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Hurricane Martin Forecast Discussion


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WTNT41 KNHC 022046
TCDAT1

Hurricane Martin Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162022
500 PM AST Wed Nov 02 2022

Martin is an impressive high-latitude hurricane for November.  
Satellite imagery shows that the eye continues to become better 
defined with warmer temperatures in the center, along with a mostly 
solid eyewall.  Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB have 
increased to T4.5 or 77 kt, and the initial wind speed is set to 75 
kt based on that data.  

The hurricane should begin extratropical transition overnight, with 
almost all of the guidance indicating strengthening.  The high- 
resolution hurricane models and most of the global models are still
showing a sting-jet-like feature, with winds of 90 kt or more 
expected tomorrow morning in the southern semicircle.  
Additionally, at about the same time, Martin should grow 
substantially due to a favorable mid-latitude trough 
interaction. Gradual weakening should start by tomorrow afternoon 
as the baroclinic forcing decreases, but Martin should be a
very large and strong extratropical cyclone for several days over
the far North Atlantic.  Little change was made to the previous 
forecast, and Martin should become an extratropical low by 18 
UTC on Thursday.

Martin has turned northeastward and continues to pick up 
speed, now 27 kt.  The hurricane should move faster to the 
north-northeast and north as it becomes drawn into the strong 
deep-layer trough to its northwest during the next day or two. This 
same trough will ultimately fully capture Martin, causing the now 
merged extratropical cyclone to slow down and eventually move 
eastward in the mid-latitude westerlies toward the British Isles.  
The new forecast was shifted eastward at long range, with only 
small modifications otherwise. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 37.1N  47.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 40.4N  43.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 48.0N  36.5W   85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  04/0600Z 54.6N  36.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  04/1800Z 56.3N  35.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  05/0600Z 56.0N  32.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  05/1800Z 55.0N  24.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  06/1800Z 57.0N  11.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake



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