Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Lisa Wind Speed Probabilities


262 
FONT15 KNHC 021454
PWSAT5

HURRICANE LISA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152022               
1500 UTC WED NOV 02 2022                                            

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LISA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS
...80 MPH...130 KM/H.                                               

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

VERACRUZ MX    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)

FRONTERA MX    34  1   3( 4)  16(20)   3(23)   X(23)   X(23)   1(24)
FRONTERA MX    50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)

MERIDA MX      34  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

BELIZE CITY    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BELIZE CITY    50 70   1(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)
BELIZE CITY    64 32   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)

PUERTO BARRIOS 34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)

TAPACHULA      34  1   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    



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