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Hurricane Lisa Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT25 KNHC 021454
TCMAT5

HURRICANE LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152022
1500 UTC WED NOV 02 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS...AND
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTH COAST OF
HONDURAS EAST OF PUNTA CASTILLA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE
* CHETUMAL TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA...MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAY ISLANDS...HONDURAS
* NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA CASTILLA WESTWARD
* NORTH COAST OF GUATEMALA
* PUERTO COSTA MAYA TO PUNTA ALLEN...MEXICO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LISA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  87.4W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  20SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  60SE  30SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  87.4W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N  86.7W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.3N  88.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.5N  90.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.8N  92.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.6N  94.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.6N  95.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.5N  95.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 20.0N  94.5W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 18.5N  94.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N  87.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



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