Atlantic Hurricane Feed

Hurricane Lee Wind Speed Probabilities



797 
FONT13 KNHC 081453
PWSAT3

HURRICANE LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132023               
1500 UTC FRI SEP 08 2023                                            

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 135   
KTS...155 MPH...250 KM/H.                                           

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  10(14)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)

SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

PONCE PR       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)

AGUADILLA PR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)
AGUADILLA PR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
AGUADILLA PR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

SAN JUAN PR    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)

VIEQUES PR     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   5(10)   3(13)

SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   6( 8)   4(12)   3(15)

SAINT JOHN     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   6( 8)   5(13)   2(15)

SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   4( 9)   1(10)

SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   6(12)   3(15)   2(17)

SABA           34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   4( 8)   2(10)   1(11)

ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)   2(11)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)   1(10)

BARBUDA        34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   4(11)   1(12)   1(13)

ANTIGUA        34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)

GUADELOUPE     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    



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