Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Lee Wind Speed Probabilities



000
FONT13 KNHC 110247
PWSAT3

HURRICANE LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  23                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132023               
0300 UTC MON SEP 11 2023                                            

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105   
KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H.                                           

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)

PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  21(22)  17(39)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   7(13)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)

GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

SAINT THOMAS   34  2   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

SAINT JOHN     34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PAPIN                                                    



Source link