Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Julia Wind Speed Probabilities


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FONT13 KNHC 090851
PWSAT3

HURRICANE JULIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132022               
0900 UTC SUN OCT 09 2022                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.                                         

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

GUANAJA        34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

PUERTO CABEZAS 34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

BLUEFIELDS     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BLUEFIELDS     50 63   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)

MANAGUA        34 62   3(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)
MANAGUA        50  6   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

S SALVADOR     34  2  10(12)   7(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)

TEGUCIGALPA    34  7   4(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

P SAN JOSE     34  X   3( 3)  24(27)   2(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
P SAN JOSE     50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

GUATEMALA CITY 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

TAPACHULA      34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER REINHART                                                 



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