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Hurricane Ian Wind Speed Probabilities


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FONT14 KNHC 301454
PWSAT4

HURRICANE IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  32                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022               
1500 UTC FRI SEP 30 2022                                            

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS
...85 MPH...140 KM/H.                                               

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

CHARLOTTESVIL  34  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

RICHMOND VA    34  5   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

DANVILLE VA    34 14  16(30)   1(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)

NORFOLK NAS    34  6   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

NORFOLK VA     34  6   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

OCEANA NAS VA  34  6   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

ELIZABETH CTY  34  8   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

GREENSBORO NC  34 20  17(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)

RALEIGH NC     34 45  16(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)

ROCKY MT NC    34 37   6(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  8   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

FAYETTEVILLE   34 94   2(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
FAYETTEVILLE   50  6   5(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

CHARLOTTE NC   34 17   8(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)

CHERRY PT NC   34 55   1(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)

NEW RIVER NC   34 38   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)

MOREHEAD CITY  34 59   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)

SURF CITY NC   34 93   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)

WILMINGTON NC  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
WILMINGTON NC  50  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

BALD HEAD ISL  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  7   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

FLORENCE SC    34 98   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
FLORENCE SC    50 36   2(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)
FLORENCE SC    64  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

COLUMBIA SC    34 36   1(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)

LITTLE RIVER   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
LITTLE RIVER   50 46   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
LITTLE RIVER   64  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

MYRTLE BEACH   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MYRTLE BEACH   50 79   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)
MYRTLE BEACH   64  6   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

GEORGETOWN SC  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GEORGETOWN SC  50 85   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)
GEORGETOWN SC  64 29   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)

CHARLESTON SC  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
CHARLESTON SC  50 87   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)
CHARLESTON SC  64  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

BEAUFORT MCAS  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

AUGUSTA GA     34  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

SAVANNAH GA    34 16   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)

KINGS BAY GA   34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

MAYPORT NS FL  34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    



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