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Hurricane Ian Wind Speed Probabilities


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FONT14 KNHC 300847
PWSAT4

HURRICANE IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  31                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022               
0900 UTC FRI SEP 30 2022                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS
...85 MPH...140 KM/H.                                               

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

WASHINGTON DC  34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

WALLOPS CDA    34  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X  12(12)  10(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)

RICHMOND VA    34  1  23(24)   3(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)

DANVILLE VA    34  7  50(57)  10(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)

NORFOLK NAS    34  3  29(32)   1(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)

NORFOLK VA     34  4  31(35)   1(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)

OCEANA NAS VA  34  6  32(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)

ELIZABETH CTY  34 29  30(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)

GREENSBORO NC  34 12  54(66)   6(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)
GREENSBORO NC  50  X   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

RALEIGH NC     34 55  35(90)   1(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
RALEIGH NC     50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ROCKY MT NC    34 66  24(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)

CAPE HATTERAS  34 78   2(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)

FAYETTEVILLE   34 96   3(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
FAYETTEVILLE   50  X  12(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)

CHARLOTTE NC   34 14  40(54)   2(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
CHARLOTTE NC   50  X   8( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

CHERRY PT NC   34 99   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

NEW RIVER NC   34 98   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)

MOREHEAD CITY  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

SURF CITY NC   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SURF CITY NC   50  2   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

WILMINGTON NC  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
WILMINGTON NC  50  1   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

BALD HEAD ISL  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  7   7(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)

FLORENCE SC    34 98   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
FLORENCE SC    50  8  61(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)
FLORENCE SC    64  X   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

COLUMBIA SC    34 50  21(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)
COLUMBIA SC    50  1  21(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)

LITTLE RIVER   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
LITTLE RIVER   50 25  20(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)
LITTLE RIVER   64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

MYRTLE BEACH   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MYRTLE BEACH   50 47  25(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)
MYRTLE BEACH   64  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

GEORGETOWN SC  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GEORGETOWN SC  50 76  14(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
GEORGETOWN SC  64  5  19(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)

CHARLESTON SC  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
CHARLESTON SC  50 95   2(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
CHARLESTON SC  64 34   8(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)

BEAUFORT MCAS  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50 62   1(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)
BEAUFORT MCAS  64  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

ATLANTA GA     34  2   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

AUGUSTA GA     34 11  15(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)

SAVANNAH GA    34 67   1(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)
SAVANNAH GA    50  6   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

KINGS BAY GA   34 16   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)

WAYCROSS GA    34  4   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

MAYPORT NS FL  34 15   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)

JACKSONVILLE   34  3   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

GAINESVILLE FL 34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

DAYTONA BEACH  34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

THE VILLAGES   34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ORLANDO FL     34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

COCOA BEACH FL 34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

PATRICK AFB    34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

FT PIERCE FL   34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

TAMPA FL       34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

CEDAR KEY FL   34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

COLUMBUS GA    34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     



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