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Hurricane Ian Wind Speed Probabilities


698 
FONT14 KNHC 290259
PWSAT4

HURRICANE IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  26                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022               
0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2022                                            

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS
...90 MPH...150 KM/H.                                               

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)

ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   7(17)   X(17)   X(17)

RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)

ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)   4(23)   X(23)   X(23)

CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)  13(32)   X(32)   X(32)
CHARLOTTE NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)

SURF CITY NC   34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   9(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)

WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)   2(17)   X(17)   X(17)

BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   2( 2)   8(10)  15(25)   1(26)   X(26)   X(26)

FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  35(39)   7(46)   X(46)   X(46)
FLORENCE SC    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)
FLORENCE SC    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

COLUMBIA SC    34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)  37(40)   6(46)   X(46)   X(46)
COLUMBIA SC    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)
COLUMBIA SC    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

LITTLE RIVER   34  X   3( 3)  10(13)  22(35)   1(36)   X(36)   X(36)
LITTLE RIVER   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   3( 3)  13(16)  27(43)   2(45)   X(45)   X(45)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
MYRTLE BEACH   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   1( 1)  10(11)  37(48)   3(51)   X(51)   X(51)
GEORGETOWN SC  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
GEORGETOWN SC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

CHARLESTON SC  34  2   4( 6)  32(38)  25(63)   2(65)   X(65)   X(65)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   5( 5)  17(22)   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)
CHARLESTON SC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

BEAUFORT MCAS  34  3   5( 8)  34(42)  21(63)   2(65)   X(65)   X(65)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X   X( X)   6( 6)  13(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
BEAUFORT MCAS  64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

AUGUSTA GA     34  1   X( 1)   2( 3)  23(26)   4(30)   X(30)   X(30)
AUGUSTA GA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

SAVANNAH GA    34  3   2( 5)  19(24)  17(41)   1(42)   X(42)   X(42)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
SAVANNAH GA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

KINGS BAY GA   34  4  28(32)  16(48)   2(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)
KINGS BAY GA   50  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

WAYCROSS GA    34  3   2( 5)   4( 9)   3(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)

MAYPORT NS FL  34  8  37(45)  13(58)   1(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
MAYPORT NS FL  50  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
MAYPORT NS FL  64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

JACKSONVILLE   34  7  15(22)   7(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)

GAINESVILLE FL 34 31   5(36)   X(36)   1(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)

DAYTONA BEACH  34 95   3(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
DAYTONA BEACH  50 10  15(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)

THE VILLAGES   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
THE VILLAGES   50  6   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

ORLANDO FL     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ORLANDO FL     50 86   1(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)
ORLANDO FL     64 35   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)

COCOA BEACH FL 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 64   4(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)
COCOA BEACH FL 64 15   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)

PATRICK AFB    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PATRICK AFB    50 66   4(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
PATRICK AFB    64 16   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)

FT PIERCE FL   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
FT PIERCE FL   50 10   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
FT PIERCE FL   64  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

W PALM BEACH   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

FT LAUDERDALE  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

MIAMI FL       34  5   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

HOMESTEAD ARB  34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

MARATHON FL    34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

KEY WEST FL    34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

NAPLES FL      34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

FT MYERS FL    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
FT MYERS FL    50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

VENICE FL      34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
VENICE FL      50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

TAMPA FL       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
TAMPA FL       50  8   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

CEDAR KEY FL   34 41   2(43)   X(43)   1(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34  2   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

ST MARKS FL    34  3   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

APALACHICOLA   34  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

GFMX 290N 850W 34  3   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

PANAMA CITY FL 34  2   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

GRAND BAHAMA   34  4   4( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    



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