Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Ian Wind Speed Probabilities


630 
FONT14 KNHC 281503
PWSAT4

HURRICANE IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  24                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022               
1500 UTC WED SEP 28 2022                                            

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 135   
KTS...155 MPH...250 KM/H.                                           

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)

GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   1(11)   X(11)

RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)

ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   1(13)   X(13)

CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)   1(18)   X(18)

CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   1(10)   X(10)

WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)

BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   8(14)   1(15)   X(15)

FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  20(23)   1(24)   X(24)
FLORENCE SC    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)  24(27)   1(28)   X(28)
COLUMBIA SC    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)

LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)  13(20)   1(21)   X(21)
LITTLE RIVER   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)  16(24)   1(25)   X(25)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)  22(28)   1(29)   X(29)
GEORGETOWN SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)

CHARLESTON SC  34  X   4( 4)   3( 7)  14(21)  23(44)   1(45)   X(45)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   X(12)   X(12)
CHARLESTON SC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

BEAUFORT MCAS  34  1   6( 7)   3(10)  18(28)  22(50)   1(51)   X(51)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   1(13)   X(13)
BEAUFORT MCAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

AUGUSTA GA     34  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   3( 5)  18(23)   X(23)   X(23)
AUGUSTA GA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SAVANNAH GA    34  2   5( 7)   2( 9)  11(20)  18(38)   1(39)   X(39)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
SAVANNAH GA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

KINGS BAY GA   34  5  13(18)  13(31)  17(48)   6(54)   X(54)   X(54)
KINGS BAY GA   50  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   5(10)   1(11)   1(12)   X(12)
KINGS BAY GA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

WAYCROSS GA    34  4   5( 9)   2(11)   4(15)   5(20)   X(20)   X(20)

MAYPORT NS FL  34  5  18(23)  16(39)  16(55)   5(60)   X(60)   X(60)
MAYPORT NS FL  50  1   3( 4)   5( 9)   5(14)   2(16)   X(16)   X(16)
MAYPORT NS FL  64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

JACKSONVILLE   34  5  16(21)   9(30)   7(37)   3(40)   X(40)   X(40)
JACKSONVILLE   50  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

GAINESVILLE FL 34 23  33(56)   3(59)   1(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)
GAINESVILLE FL 50  3   5( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
GAINESVILLE FL 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

DAYTONA BEACH  34 37  42(79)   8(87)   2(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  4  25(29)  11(40)   X(40)   1(41)   X(41)   X(41)
DAYTONA BEACH  64  1   9(10)   3(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)

THE VILLAGES   34 77  15(92)   1(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
THE VILLAGES   50 11  34(45)   2(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
THE VILLAGES   64  3   8(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)

ORLANDO FL     34 87  11(98)   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ORLANDO FL     50 25  50(75)   2(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)
ORLANDO FL     64  5  38(43)   1(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)

COCOA BEACH FL 34 75  18(93)   1(94)   1(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
COCOA BEACH FL 50  8  32(40)   5(45)   1(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
COCOA BEACH FL 64  2  14(16)   2(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)

PATRICK AFB    34 76  17(93)   1(94)   1(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
PATRICK AFB    50  9  33(42)   5(47)   X(47)   1(48)   X(48)   X(48)
PATRICK AFB    64  2  15(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)

FT PIERCE FL   34 78  10(88)   X(88)   X(88)   1(89)   X(89)   X(89)
FT PIERCE FL   50  7  12(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
FT PIERCE FL   64  2   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

W PALM BEACH   34 65   9(74)   1(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
W PALM BEACH   50  4   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
W PALM BEACH   64  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

FT LAUDERDALE  34 50   7(57)   X(57)   1(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
FT LAUDERDALE  50  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

MIAMI FL       34 43   7(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)
MIAMI FL       50  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

HOMESTEAD ARB  34 29   5(34)   X(34)   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
HOMESTEAD ARB  50  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

MARATHON FL    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

KEY WEST FL    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

NAPLES FL      34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
NAPLES FL      50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
NAPLES FL      64 20   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)

FT MYERS FL    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
FT MYERS FL    50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
FT MYERS FL    64 82   1(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)

VENICE FL      34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
VENICE FL      50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
VENICE FL      64 94   1(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)

TAMPA FL       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
TAMPA FL       50 83   6(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
TAMPA FL       64 28  13(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)

CEDAR KEY FL   34 59  13(72)   1(73)   1(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  4   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
CEDAR KEY FL   64  1   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34  4   3( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

ST MARKS FL    34  4   5( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)

APALACHICOLA   34  4   3( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)

GFMX 290N 850W 34  5   4( 9)   1(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

PANAMA CITY FL 34  3   3( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

DESTIN EXEC AP 34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

COLUMBUS GA    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

GFMX 290N 870W 34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

GRAND BAHAMA   34  5   9(14)   2(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  3   4( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

HAVANA         34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    



Source link