Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Ian Public Advisory


460 
WTNT34 KNHC 292357
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 29A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

...IAN TAKING AIM AT THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA WITH 
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING, STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 79.4W
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning south of Sebastian Inlet is discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia Line to Cape Fear
* Neuse River
* St. Johns River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to Cape Fear

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet to Savannah River
* Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico River
* Cape Fear River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Savannah River
* East of Cape Fear to Surf City

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina should monitor the
progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located 
by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 29.7 North, 
longitude 79.4 West.  Ian is moving toward the north-northeast near 
10 mph (17 km/h).  A turn toward the north is expected tonight, 
followed by a turn toward the north-northwest with an increase in 
forward speed Friday night.  On the forecast track, Ian will 
approach the coast of South Carolina on Friday.  The center will 
move farther inland across the Carolinas Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Ian could slightly strengthen before landfall tomorrow, and 
is forecast to rapidly weaken over the southeastern United States 
late Friday into Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415
miles (665 km).  St. Augustine Beach Pier recently reported a 
sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust to 62 mph (100 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane 
Hunter aircraft observations is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Edisto Beach to Murrells Inlet...4-7 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Edisto Beach...4-6 ft
* Murrells Inlet to Cape Fear...3-5 ft
* Cape Fear River...2-4 ft
* St. Johns River...2-4 ft
* East of Cape Fear to Duck, including Pamlico and
Neuse Rivers...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* Albemarle Sound...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the
Hurricane Warning area starting early Friday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning overnight.

Tropical storm conditions are now occurring in parts of the
warning area on the east coast of Florida and should spread
northward along the Georgia and North Carolina coasts tonight 
through Friday.  Hurricane conditions are possible within the 
Hurricane Watch area in northeastern Florida and Georgia today into 
Friday, and in the watch area in North Carolina on Friday morning.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall amounts:

* Coastal Georgia: 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts.
* Northeast South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima of 12
inches
* Upstate and central South Carolina, North Carolina, and southern
Virginia: 3 to 6 inches with local maxima of 8 inches across
northwest North Carolina and southwest Virginia.

Major-to-record river flooding will continue across central Florida
through next week.  Considerable flash and urban flooding, and minor
river flooding is possible across South Carolina through Friday.
Locally considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding is
possible this weekend across portions of northwest North Carolina
and southwest Virginia. Limited flooding is possible across portions
of the southern Mid-Atlantic.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes will be possible Friday across the
coastal Carolinas and southeast Virginia.

SURF:  Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast
of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula, Florida
and Georgia. Swells will increase along the coasts of South Carolina
and North Carolina.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$

Forecaster Pasch



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