023 WTNT34 KNHC 281758 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 24A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 200 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 ...IAN CAUSING CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 82.3W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WNW OF FORT MYERS FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning and the Storm Surge Warning for the Dry Tortugas has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay * Sebastian Inlet to Flagler/Volusia County Line A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Suwannee River southward to Flamingo * Tampa Bay * Lower Florida Keys from Big Pine Key westward to Key West * Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the South Santee River * St. Johns River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass to the Anclote River * All of the Florida Keys * Flamingo to Sebastian Inlet * Flagler/Volusia County Line to Little River Inlet * Flamingo to Chokoloskee * Lake Okeechobee * Florida Bay * Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to east of Big Pine Key * Florida Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Flagler/Volusia County Line to the South Santee River * Lake Okeechobee A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ian was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Tampa radar data near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 82.3 West. Ian is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion with a reduction in forward speed is forecast today, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to move onshore soon, move over central Florida tonight and Thursday morning and emerge over the western Atlantic by late Thursday. Ian is forecast to turn northward on Friday and approach the northeastern Florida coast in addition to the Georgia and South Carolina coasts late Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Ian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Ian is forecast to make landfall on the west coast of Florida as a catastrophic hurricane soon. Weakening is expected after landfall, but Ian could be near hurricane strength when it moves over the Florida East coast tomorrow, and when it approaches the northeastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts late Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). A River, Estuary, and Coastal Network station at Redfish Pass, Florida, recently reported sustained winds of 94 mph (151 km/h) and a wind gust of 126 mph (203 km/h), A Weatherflow station at Tarpon Point recently reported sustained winds of 83 mph (134 km/h) with a gust to 101 mph (163 km/h). The minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches) based on Air Force Reserve dropsonde data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... * Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor...12-18 ft * Middle of Longboat Key to Englewood...6-10 ft * Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...8-12 ft * Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...5-8 ft * Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa Bay...4-6 ft * Suwannee River to Anclote River...3-5 ft * Lower Keys from Key West to Big Pine Key...3-5 ft * Flagler/Volusia County Line to Altamaha Sound...4-6 ft * Altamaha Sound to South Santee River ...3-5 ft * St. Johns River north of Julington...3-5 ft * St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft * East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft * Florida Keys east of Big Pine Key...2-4 ft * Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft * North of South Santee River to Surf City NC...1-3 ft * Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is likely where the core of Ian moves onshore. Hurricane conditions are ongoing within the Hurricane Warning area now and will slowly spread northeastward through the day. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin along the east coast of Florida in the Hurricane Warning area starting early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area on Thursday through late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area in the Florida Keys, and will continue for a few more hours. Tropical storm conditions are occuring in parts of the warning area on the east coast and should spread northward through the Georgia and South Carolina coasts tonight and Thursday. RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall: * Florida Keys and South Florida: 6 to 8 inches, with local maxima up to 12 inches. * Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 18 inches, with local maxima up to 24 inches. * Eastern Georgia and Coastal South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima of 12 inches. Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flash, urban, and river flooding is expected across central Florida. Widespread considerable flash, urban, and river flooding is expected across portions of southern Florida through Wednesday, and northeast Florida, southeastern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina later this week through the weekend. Limited flash, urban, and river flooding is possible over portions of the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic U.S. later this week through the weekend. TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today and tonight, especially across east central Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula and west coast of Florida. Swells will increase along the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina tonight and Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake