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Hurricane Ian Forecast Discussion


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WTNT44 KNHC 281458
TCDAT4

Hurricane Ian Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter data was absolutely
critical this morning in diagnosing the rapid intensification of
Ian, despite both planes undergoing multiple eyewall penetrations
experiencing severe turbulence.  That data supported an intensity of 
about 135 kt a few hours ago.  Since that time, high-resolution
Tampa Doppler radar data has been sampling the eyewall near 10,000 
ft with winds up to 155 kt, indicating that Ian is on the threshold 
of category 5 status.  The maximum winds are set to 135 kt on this 
advisory.

Ian is expected to make landfall in southwestern Florida in the next 
few hours as a catastrophic hurricane.  No changes were made to the 
track forecast near Florida, except to be faster to come into line 
with the latest consensus aids.   One important change is that Ian 
is likely to remain more intact as it crosses the Florida peninsula 
(due to both its stronger initial wind speed and its faster forecast 
forward speed), and this now increases the threat of hurricane-force 
winds on the east coast of Florida.  This necessitates the issuance 
of a Hurricane Warning on the east coast of central Florida.  While 
significant re-strengthening of Ian might not occur over the 
Atlantic Ocean, model guidance has been catching up with a 
trough interaction from a shortwave over the southern United 
States, and are stronger than yesterday on Ian's intensity with 
more baroclinic forcing.  Thus, a Hurricane Watch has been issued 
from northeastern Florida northward up the coast through most of 
coastal South Carolina.   The new intensity forecast is raised from 
the previous one, near the latest statistical-dynamical guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Catastrophic storm surge inundation of 12 to 18 feet above ground 
level along with destructive waves are expected somewhere along the 
southwest Florida coastline from Englewood to Bonita Beach, 
including Charlotte Harbor. Residents in these areas should urgently 
follow any evacuation orders in effect. 

2. Catastrophic wind damage is beginning along the southwestern 
coast of Florida today near the landfall location.  Hurricane-force 
winds are expected to extend well inland along near the core of Ian. 
Preparations to protect life and property should be urgently rushed 
to completion. 

3. Heavy rainfall will spread across the Florida peninsula through 
Thursday and reach portions of the Southeast U.S. later this week 
and this weekend.  Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic
flooding is expected across portions of central Florida with 
considerable flooding in southern Florida, northern Florida, 
southeastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina. Widespread, 
prolonged major and record river flooding is expected across 
central Florida.

4. Hurricane conditions are expected along the east-central Florida 
coast overnight, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued.  
Hurricane conditions are possible from northeastern Florida to 
portions of South Carolina on Thursday and Friday, and a Hurricane 
Watch has been issued for that area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 26.3N  82.5W  135 KT 155 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 27.3N  82.1W  105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND
 24H  29/1200Z 28.3N  81.4W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 36H  30/0000Z 29.3N  80.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  30/1200Z 30.8N  80.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
 60H  01/0000Z 32.9N  80.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 72H  01/1200Z 34.7N  81.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  02/1200Z 36.0N  81.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake



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