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Hurricane Ian Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT24 KNHC 260853
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022
0900 UTC MON SEP 26 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...AND ARTEMISA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS
* LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* DRY TORTUGAS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* DRY TORTUGAS
* FLORIDA BAY
* ANCLOTE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE...* TAMPA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ENGLEWOOD TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC
* ENGLEWOOD SOUTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO
36 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IAN.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE NEED LATER TODAY FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N  82.0W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  70SE  30SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N  82.0W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  81.7W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.7N  83.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.7N  83.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 23.6N  84.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE  90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 25.3N  84.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 26.7N  83.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.7N  83.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...210NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 29.2N  83.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 32.0N  82.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N  82.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 26/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




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