Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Ian Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT24 KNHC 290258
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022
0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE IS DISCONTINUED.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF BOCA RATON IS DISCONTINUED.
STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM FLAMINGO EASTWARD TO
THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHOKOLOSKEE TO ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
* SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SUWANNEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO
* TAMPA BAY
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* ST. JOHNS RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INDIAN PASS TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER
* BOCA RATON TO SEBASTIAN INLET
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO SURF CITY
* FLAMINGO TO CHOKOLOSKEE
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* BIMINI AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER INLET

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO CAPE LOOKOUT

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N  81.4W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT.......130NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE   0SE 300SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N  81.4W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.2N  81.7W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 28.4N  80.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.
34 KT...250NE 130SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 29.6N  80.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...100NE  60SE  30SW  70NW.
34 KT...330NE 130SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 31.3N  80.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  40SE  40SW  90NW.
34 KT...240NE 140SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 33.1N  80.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...210NE 120SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 35.0N  81.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 37.0N  81.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N  81.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




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