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Hurricane Ian Forecast Advisory


490 
WTNT24 KNHC 272113 CCA
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022
2100 UTC TUE SEP 27 2022

CORRECTED WATCHES AND WARNINGS SECTION

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA TO CHOKOLOSKEE.  THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DOWNGRADED THE
HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF
ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...AND ARTEMISA.  THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS...FOR THE UPPER FLORIDA
KEYS...FLORIDA BAY...AND FOR SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA FROM SOUTH OF BOCA
RATON HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH FROM MARINELAND TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY
LINE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A STORM SURGE WARNING.  THE STORM SURGE
WATCH FROM THE AUCILLA RIVER TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHOKOLOSKEE TO ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
* DRY TORTUGAS

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SUWANNEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO
* TAMPA BAY
* DRY TORTUGAS
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE ST. MARY'S RIVER
* ST. JOHNS RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS
* SUWANNEE RIVER TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER
* ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
* FLAMINGO TO ALTAMAHA SOUND
* FLAMINGO TO CHOKOLOSKEE
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* FLORIDA BAY
* BIMINI AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* FLORIDA BAY
* MOUTH OF ST. MARY'S RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N  83.2W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  952 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE  35SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  60SE 180SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N  83.2W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N  83.3W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 25.3N  82.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 26.6N  82.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.6N  82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.
34 KT...280NE 120SE 140SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.5N  81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...310NE 120SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 29.4N  81.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...260NE 130SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 31.0N  81.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 34.5N  82.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N  83.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 28/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE





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