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Hurricane Ian Forecast Advisory


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WTNT24 KNHC 270855
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022
0900 UTC TUE SEP 27 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA TO BONITA BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MIDDLE FLORIDA
KEYS FROM THE CHANNEL 5 BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM THE ANCLOTE RIVER NORTHWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM JUPITER INLET TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE
INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...AND ARTEMISA
* BONITA BEACH TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
* DRY TORTUGAS

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANCLOTE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO
* TAMPA BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS
* LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* FLAMINGO TO BONITA BEACH
* SUWANNEE RIVER TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE SOUTH TO JUPITER INLET
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* DRY TORTUGAS
* FLORIDA BAY
* AUCILLA RIVER TO ANCLOTE RIVER
* ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE
* SAINT JOHNS RIVER

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF ANCLOTE RIVER TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS
* ALTAMAHA SOUND TO VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE
* DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL 
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER 
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW 
EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N  83.7W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  952 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N  83.7W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N  83.6W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 23.7N  83.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 25.4N  83.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 26.7N  83.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.6N  82.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.3N  82.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...240NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 29.0N  82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...240NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 31.7N  82.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 35.0N  82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N  83.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 27/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




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