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Hurricane Earl Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT41 KNHC 070256
TCDAT1

Hurricane Earl Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062022
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 06 2022

Earl continues to be become better organized this evening.  An 
ongoing NOAA reconnaissance mission measured 700-mb flight-level 
winds as high as 80 kt, which supports an intensity of around 70 kt. 
There were some higher winds measured by the SFMR and dropsondes, 
however, we prefer to remain on the conservative side given the 
fluctuations Earl has been experiencing over the past 24 hours.  
Radar images show the eyewall is still open to the south, and Earl 
is likely is still experiencing the affects of strong shear.

The aircraft fixes indicate that Earl is moving northward at 6 kt.  
A mid-level ridge over the hurricane is expected to continue 
weakening while a trough moves off the coast of the eastern United 
States.  This trough is predicted to steer Earl to the northeast in 
about a day or so and accelerate its forward motion poleward.  Once 
again, the track model guidance has shifted west slightly, and the 
NHC track forecast has moved to the west and is closest to the 
correct consensus model guidance.

Despite the model-analyzed strong westerly deep-layer shear, Earl 
has intensified.  This magnitude of shear is predicted to continue 
for another day or so before weakening briefly in about two days for 
a 24-hour period.  Oceanic conditions under the hurricane are 
expected to be conducive for further intensification for the next 
few days as well.  Therefore, the latest official forecast predicts 
the hurricane will continue to intensify for the next 24 hours, with 
a quicker rate of strengthening between 24 and 72 hours.  Earl is 
expected to make its extratropical transition by day 5.   


KEY MESSAGES: 

1.  Although Earl's center is forecast to pass southeast of Bermuda, 
the wind field is expected to grow, with tropical-storm-force winds 
possibly spreading across the island on Thursday.

2.  Swells generated by Earl are expected to reach Bermuda by
Thursday morning.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions through Friday.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 24.8N  65.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 25.8N  65.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 27.3N  65.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 29.1N  65.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z 31.1N  63.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  09/1200Z 33.7N  61.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  10/0000Z 37.0N  57.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  11/0000Z 42.9N  47.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  12/0000Z 44.9N  40.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch



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