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Hurricane Earl Forecast Discussion


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WTNT41 KNHC 080252
TCDAT1

Hurricane Earl Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062022
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 07 2022

Earl has resumed intensifying this evening.  A NOAA Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft reported a maximum flight-level wind of 107 kt (which 
reduces to an intensity of about 95 kt), and the central pressure 
has fallen to 970 mb.  Both SFMR and dropsonde data support surface 
winds of 80 kt.  Onboard radar has also confirmed a rather large eye 
of almost 60 miles (90 km) and a fairly symmetric wind field.  The 
initial intensity is increased to 85 kt as a blend of all available 
aircraft data, and considering the drop in pressure.

Aircraft center fixes confirm that Earl is still moving northward at 
about 8 kt.  This motion is expected to gradually turn 
north-northeastward and northeastward and accelerate as Earl moves 
between a mid-level ridge to the southeast, and a digging 
mid-latitude trough to the northwest in the next couple of days.  
The trough is forecast to capture Earl, however there is some 
uncertainty in the model guidance to the timing of this interaction 
resulting in a larger spread in the along-track positions beyond 72 
hours.  The official track forecast is very similar to the previous 
forecast and close to the model consensus aids.

The apparent decrease in deep-layer vertical wind shear has likely 
allowed Earl to strengthen.  Global model guidance suggests the 
shear will continue to abate over the next 36 hours and with 
atmospheric conditions remaining conducive, further intensification 
is expected. The NHC intensity forecast now shows a quicker rate of 
strengthening to a peak of 115 kt at 36 hours.  Earl is expected to 
undergo extra-tropical transition in a few days when it moves to 
higher latitudes and interacts with an upper-level trough.


KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Although Earl's center is forecast to pass southeast of Bermuda,
the wind field is expected to grow, with tropical-storm-force winds
forecast to spread across the island beginning late Thursday and 
continuing through Friday morning.  Hurricane-force winds are 
possible on Bermuda late Thursday or Thursday night if Earl's track 
shifts farther west than is currently forecast.

2.  Swells generated by Earl are expected to reach Bermuda by
tonight and the U.S. East Coast shortly thereafter.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions through the weekend.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 27.2N  65.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 28.6N  65.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 30.7N  63.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 33.3N  61.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 36.6N  57.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
 60H  10/1200Z 40.2N  53.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  11/0000Z 42.9N  49.1W   80 KT  90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  12/0000Z 45.0N  44.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  13/0000Z 46.4N  39.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch



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